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ترامب يبرمج «نهاية أوبك»

يقول محللون إن واشنطن تعتمد على مواردها وكذلك على حلفائها في الشرق الاوسط من اجل منع إيران من تصدير ذهبها الأسود، دون ان يؤدي ذلك الى ارتفاع أسعار النفط وزعزعة التوازن الهش داخل أوبك.

في ايار/مايو 2018 ، أعلنت الولايات المتحدة انسحابها من الاتفاق الدولي حول البرنامج النووي الإيراني، وأعادت فرض عقوبات على صادرات النفط الخام من هذا البلد.

لكن بغية تجنب رؤية أسعار النفط تتصاعد وترفع معها أسعار المحروقات، يعتمد الرئيس الأميركي دونالد ترامب على دعم دول الخليج المناهضة لايران والمتحالفة مع الولايات المتحدة.

من جهته، يقول ريكاردو فابياني من “إنرجي أسبكتس” إنه في العام الماضي “زادت البلدان المهمة في أوبك مثل السعودية والإمارات إنتاجها لتعويض النقص من إيران، لكن البيت الابيض قرر منح اعفاءات” في اللحظات الاخيرة.

نتيجة لذلك، انخفضت أسعار النفط في الربع الاخير واضطرت منظمة البلدان المصدرة للنفط (أوبك) مع الشركاء، وضمنهم روسيا، إلى أن تكون اكثر صرامة في الالتزام باتفاق الحد من الإنتاج الذي توصلوا اليه في كانون الاول/ديسمبر.

وبما أن قرارات أوبك يجب اتخاذها بالإجماع، كان من الصعب الحصول على موافقة إيران التي عبرت عن غضبها ازاء التحالف بين السعوديين والأميركيين لاعادة فرض العقوبات.

بدوره، يقول بيرن شيلدروب، المحلل في شركة نفطية، “إذا ساعدت السعودية الولايات المتحدة، فأنها تهاجم إيران بشكل غير مباشر”.

-تشديد الخناق مجددا –

مذاك، قررت الولايات المتحدة اواخر نيسان/أبريل تشديد الخناق على إيران من خلال إلغاء الإعفاءات التي سمحت لبعض الدول بمواصلة شراء النفط الخام من طهران.

ولذا، من المتوقع أن يشهد اجتماع أوبك المقبل أواخر حزيران/يونيو في فيينا توترا.

وتابع شيلدروب متسائلا “قد تكون هذه هي نهاية أوبك كما نعرفها، من يدري؟” مشيرا إلى “التغيير الهائل” الذي يشهده إنتاج النفط في الولايات المتحدة، ما قد يجعلها “تستغني عن استيراد الخام”.

وأضاف “هذا يعني أن بامكان الولايات المتحدة أن تتصرف تقريبا كما يحلو لها في الشرق الأوسط”.

لكن تبقى معرفة ما إذا كانت السعودية ستنجح في الحفاظ على وحدة أوبك مع ممارسة ضغوط على إيران.

وأوضح شيلدروب “من الناحية المثالية، ترغب السعودية في رؤية روسيا وأوبك وشركائهما في صف واحد ما سيعطي انطباعا بأن المجموعة أقوى” حتى لو بذلت بعض الدول جهودا للحد من إنتاجها.

وقال فابياني إن “أحد الحلول الممكنة هو ببساطة أن يتوقف السعوديون عن خفض إنتاجهم أكثر مما وعدوا به أوبك”.

وبهدف رفع الأسعار بعد تراجعها أواخر عام 2018، أنتجت المملكة في اذار/مارس 9,82 مليون برميل يوميا مقابل الهدف المحدد وهو 10,31 مليون برميل يوميا.

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