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ارتفاع منسوب مياه البحر يهدد المناطق المنخفضة

قالت دراسة يوم الاربعاء إن منسوب مياه البحار آخذ في الارتفاع بمعدل أسرع بنسبة 60 في المائة من توقعات الأمم المتحدة الأمر الذي يهدد المناطق المنخفضة من ميامي إلى جزر المالديف.

وقال التقرير الذي صدر خلال محادثات الأمم المتحدة في قطر بشأن مكافحة تغير المناخ أيضا إن درجات الحرارة ترتفع تمشيا مع سيناريوهات الأمم المتحدة لتعصف بآمال أن المعدل كان مبالغا فيه.

وقال ستيفان راهمستورف الاستاذ بمعهد بوستدام لأبحاث تأثيرات المناخ والذي قارن توقعات الأمم المتحدة مع ما حدث في الواقع من اوائل التسعينات إلى عام 2011 “لم تتباطأ ظاهرة الاحتباس الحراري (وليست) اقل من التوقعات.”

وقالت الدراسة إن منسوب مياه البحر يرتفع بمقدار 3.2 مليمتر سنويا وفقا لبيانات الأقمار الصناعية أي أسرع بنسبة 60 في المئة من الارتفاع السنوي البالغ مليمترين الذي تتوقعه اللجنة الدولية للتغيرات المناخية التابعة للأمم المتحدة خلال تلك الفترة.

وكتب كتاب من ألمانيا وفرنسا والولايات المتحدة في دورية رسائل الأبحاث البيئية “يشير ذلك إلى أن توقعات اللجنة الدولية للتغيرات المناخية لمنسوب البحار في المستقبل قد تكون منخفضة بشكل متحيز.”

وقال التقرير الأخير للجنة الدولية للتغيرات المناخية في عام 2007 إن منسوب البحار قد يرتفع بين 18 و59 سنتيمترا هذا القرن دون حساب التسارع المحتمل لذوبان الغطاء الجليدي في جرينلاند والقطب الجنوبي الذي قد يضيف المزيد من المياه إلى المحيطات.

وفي القرن الماضي زاد منسوب البحار حوالي 17 سنتيمترا.

وقال راهمستورف لرويترز إن أفضل تقديراته لارتفاع مستوى سطح البحر ما بين 50 سنتيمترا ومتر واحد هذا القرن وربما أكثر إذا زادت الانبعاثات. وسيؤدي ارتفاع درجات الحرارة إلى ذوبان المزيد من الجليد على الأرض وزيادة مياه المحيطات.

ومن شأن ذلك أن يجعل المناطق المنخفضة – من الدول الجزرية في المحيط الهادئ وبنجلادش إلى طوكيو ونيويورك – تواجه خطرا أكبر من هبوب العواصف والتعرية وفي سيناريو أسوأ الحالات الغرق بالكامل بمياه الفيضانات.

وتعرضت اللجنة الدولية للتغيرات المناخية للانتقاد بعدما وجب عليها تصحيح أجزاء من تقريرها لعام 2007 إذ بالغت في معدل ذوبان الأنهار الجليدية في جبال الهيمالايا وقال بالخطأ انها قد تختفي بحلول عام 2035.

وتجتمع حوالي 200 دولة في الدوحة في الفترة من 26 من نوفمبر تشرين الثاني إلى 7 من ديسمبر كانون الأول في اطار تخبط الجهود للعمل من أجل التوصل الى اتفاق في الأمم المتحدة للحد من الانبعاثات العالمية لغازات الاحتباس الحراري بداية من عام 2020.

وقال البروفيسور مارك ماسلين من جامعة كوليدج في لندن “ما لم نخفض من تلوث الكربون بسرعة فإن هذه الدراسة تظهر بوضوح اننا نتجه إلى عالم الكابوس في قمة توقعات اللجنة الدولية للتغيرات المناخية.”

وتقول اللجنة إن ارتفاع درجات الحرارة قد يسبب المزيد من الفيضانات ونوبات الجفاف والموجات الحارة والانهيارات الطينية والتصحر مما يهدد إمدادات المياه والغذاء لسكان العالم.

وقال البروفسور السير براين هوسكينز مدير معهد جرانثام لتغير المناخ بالكلية الملكية في لندن “شدد الكتاب على ما فكر فيه الكثيرون منا لبعض الوقت – لا تزال اللجنة الدولية للتغيرات المناخية بعيدة عن ناقوس الخطر في توقعاتها.”

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