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حرب عملات في أفق عولمة المنافسة التجارية

سعت دول مجموعة السبع الثلاثاء الى تهدئة المخاوف من “حرب عملات” اججتها التدابير التي اتخذتها اليابان مؤخرا، وجددت التأكيد انها ستترك للسوق حرية تحديد اسعار الصرف معتبرة في الوقت نفسه ان “التقلبات المفرطة” لها وقع سلبي.
وقد قرر نادي الدول الغنية نشر بيان رسمي قبل ايام قليلة من اجتماع يعقده في موسكو يومي الجمعة والسبت وزراء مالية مجموعة العشرين –التي تضم الدول الثرية والناشئة– ستتمحور مناقشاته على المخاوف من سباق لتخفيض العملات لتعزيز القدرة التنافسية.
واكد وزراء المالية وحكام المصارف المركزية في مجموعة السبع التي تضم المانيا وكندا والولايات المتحدة وفرنسا وبريطانيا وايطاليا واليابان، من جديد “التزامهم منذ زمن طويل باسعار صرف تحددها السوق”، كما اكدوا في بيان نشرته بريطانيا التي تتولى رئاسة مجموعة السبع هذه السنة، ان بلدانهم لن تحدد لنفسها “هدفا لسعر الصرف”.
لكنهم كرروا “ان تقلبات مفرطة وحركات غير متناسقة في اسعار الصرف يمكن ان ينتج عنها مضاعفات سلبية على الاستقرار الاقتصادي والمالي”.
واضافوا “سنواصل مشاوراتنا بشكل وثيق حول اسعار الصرف والتعاون بشكل مناسب” مؤكدين “ان سياساتنا المالية والمتعلقة بالميزانية كانت وستبقى موجهة نحو اهدافنا الوطنية وباستخدام ادواتنا الوطنية”.
وقد تنامت المخاوف من نشوب “حرب عملات” بين القوى العظمى بعد قرار المصرف المركزي الياباني في كانون الثاني/يناير الماضي تليين سياسته النقدية تحت ضغط الحكومة الجديدة من اجل محاربة الانكماش الاقتصادي وارتفاع سعر الين ما يؤثر سلبا على الصادرات.
وعلى اثر نشر بيان مجموعة السبع الذي لم يأت على ذكر التدابير اليابانية، ظهرت اولى نتائجه باستمرار تراجع الين وارتفاع اليورو مقابل الدولار الاميركي.
لكن وزير المالية الياباني تارو اسو رحب باللهجة التي تبناها النص مؤكدا “ان مختلف البلدان ادركت ان السياسة المالية التي تعتمدها اليابان ليست تلاعبا بالعملات”.
لكن العملة اليابانية سجلت بعد ذلك قفزة جديدة بسبب معلومات صحافية اشارت استنادا الى مصدر لم توضحه الى ان سياسة البنك المركزي الياباني مصدر قلق داخل مجموعة السبع.
وتثير معاودة ارتفاع اليورو قلقا شديدا لدى فرنسا التي تخشى ان ينسف جهودها لتعزيز قدرتها التنافسية وترغب في فتح نقاش بهذا الخصوص داخل مجموعة اليورو فيما تعمد الولايات المتحدة من جهتها الى ضخ عملات بشكل كثيف ما ينتج عنه تراجع قيمة الورقة الخضراء مقابل اليورو.
لكن برلين والبنك المركزي الاوروبي يرفضان فكرة رفع قيمة العملة الموحدة.
وشدد الرئيس الفرنسي فرنسوا هولاند على انه “يتوجب علينا العمل لكي لا تستخدم اسعار العملات لغايات تجارية”.
ومن مدريد دخل رئيس البنك المركزي الاوروبي ماريو دراغي في النقاش محاولا بدوره تهدئة المخاوف. وقال في هذا الصدد “اعتقد ان عبارة +حرب العملات+ مبالغ فيها الى حد كبير. لن نرى شيئا من هذا القبيل”.
ويرى المحللون ان محاولات التهدئة هذه قد تتوقف. وقال محللو البنك المركزي الالماني “ان كل ما له صلة” بحرب العملات “تمت المبالغة في تأويله على ما يبدو” من قبل السوق و”الهستيريا قد تتواصل حتى اجتماع مجموعة العشرين”.

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