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مركز دراسات أمريكي:امتلاك إيران لسلاح نووي لن يطلق سباق تسلح

قال مركز دراسات أمنية أمريكي إن المخاوف من أن امتلاك إيران لسلاح نووي قد يشعل سباق تسلح في منطقة الشرق الأوسط مبالغ فيها دافعا بأن دولا مثل السعودية لديها ما يثنيها عن امتلاك قنبلة نووية.

وتعتقد القوى الغربية أن إيران تحاول تطوير سلاح نووي تحت غطاء برنامج مدني لتوليد الكهرباء من الطاقة الذرية وهو اتهام تنفيه طهران.

وتنخرط السعودية السنية أكبر مصدر للنفط في العالم في تنافس ضار مع إيران الشيعية. وترى الدول الغربية انها اكثر دول المنطقة احتمالا لان تسعى لامتلاك سلاح نووي إذا حصلت إيران عليه.

وقال محللون إن امتلاك إيران لسلاح نووي قد يدفع مصر وتركيا للسعي لذلك.

ويعتقد أن إسرائيل التي لم تعلن قط امتلاكها لقدرة نووية هي الدولة الوحيدة في الشرق الأوسط المسلحة نوويا الآن في حين تملك باكستان الجارة الشرقية لإيران سلاحا نوويا.

وفي ديسمبر كانون الأول 2011 قال رئيس جهاز الاستخبارات السعودي السابق الأمير تركي الفيصل إنه إذا حصلت إيران على سلاح نووي ستفكر السعودية في معادلة ذلك.

وأعلنت الرياض كذلك خططا لبناء محطات توليد كهرباء تعمل بالطاقة النووية بطاقة 17 جيجاوات بحلول 2032 مع سعيها لخفض الاستهلاك المحلي من النفط لتوجيه المزيد منه للتصدير.

لكن تقريرا أعده مركز الامن الأمريكي الجديد يقول إنه على الرغم من وجود بعض المخاطر من أن تسعى السعودية لامتلاك سلاح نووي فإنها من المرجح بدرجة أكبر أن تعتمد على الولايات المتحدة حليفتها في حمايتها.

وقال التقرير يوم الثلاثاء “الاعتقاد السائد خاطيء على الأرجح.”

وحتى إذا كانت السعودية ترغب في الحصول على سلاح نووي فإن “عوائق كبيرة ستحول دون اندفاع الرياض لتطوير سلاح نووي.”

وتأسس المركز ومقره واشنطن عام 2007 كمركز غير حزبي للدراسات يهدف إلى تطوير السياسة الأمنية الأمريكية.

ومن بين واضعي التقرير كولن كال نائب مساعد وزير الدفاع الامريكي السابق لشؤون الشرق الأوسط وميليسا دالتون المختصة بالشؤون الخارجية في الوزارة.

وقال التقرير ان صعوبة وتكلفة العمل على برنامج سلاح نووي بمخالفة للقانون الدولي ورغبات الولايات المتحدة أكبر حليف للسعودية سيكون من الأسباب القوية التي تحول دون اللجوء إلى ذلك.

والسعودية من الدول الموقعة على اتفاقية حظر الانتشار النووي. وقال بعض المحللين إن الرياض بدلا من أن تسعى لبناء قدراتها النووية الخاصة قد تشتري قنبلة نووية كاملة التصنيع من باكستان حليفتها.

غير ان تقرير الثلاثاء قال إن هذا ايضا أمر مستبعد.

وأضاف “بدلا من ذلك من المرجح أن تسعى السعودية إلى الحصول على الأحدث من دفاعاتها التقليدية الراهنة وتتبع استراتيجية تحوط نووية مدنية في حين تطلب ضمانات خارجية بالأمن النووي.”

وقال التقرير إن مصر لا ترى في طموحات إيران النووية خطرا على وجودها وإن تركيا لديها بالفعل رادعا نوويا يتمثل في الضمانات الأمنية التي توفرها لها عضويتها في حلف شمال الأطلسي.

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