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أوكرانيا مأزق أوروبا

تستقبل المستشارة الالمانية انغيلا ميركل الاثنين في برلين الرئيسين الفرنسي والاوكراني في غياب نظيرهما الروسي فلاديمير بوتين لوضع استراتيجية مشتركة بعد تصاعد العنف في شرق اوكرانيا المتمرد.

وستلتقي ميركل الرئيسين الفرنسي فرنسوا هولاند والاوكراني بترو بوروشنكو للمرة الاولى منذ محادثاتهم الماراتونية في بيلاروسيا في شباط/فبراير حين افضت المفاوضات التي استغرقت 17 ساعة الى توقيع اتفاقات مينسك-2 للسلام.

وقد اتاحت هذه الاتفاقات ارساء هدنة احترمت الى حد ما في نزاع اسفر عن سقوط 6800 قتيل خلال 16 شهرا، بينهم 1500 منذ توقيع هذه الاتفاقات.

لكن رجل روسيا القوي الذي كان حاضرا في مينسك لم يدع الى برلين الاثنين.

وتعتبر كييف ان غياب الرئيس الروسي يشكل “اشارة مهمة جدا الى بوتين والحضور الغربي تفيد بان فرنسا والمانيا تقفان في صفنا” و”مستعدتان للتواصل من دونه”.

اما باريس التي تبدو اقل تشددا، فتؤكد انه “تلبية براغماتية جدا” لطلب الرئيس الاوكراني. وقال مصدر دبلوماسي فرنسي “انه ليس اجتماعا ثلاثيا يهدف الى تنظيم اي معركة دبلوماسية ضد روسيا”. واضاف ان قمة جديدة “رباعية” بمشاركة بوتين يفترض ان تعقد قريبا.

وقلل المصدر من خطورة التصعيد الاخير في العنف، مؤكدا ان اللقاء “هو بالاحرى اختبار (…) ولسنا عشية عملية واسعة النطاق”.

وتاتي قمة الاثنين بعد تصاعد التوتر في شرق اوكرانيا حيث اعلن المتمردون وكييف الاثنين الماضي مقتل عشرة اشخاص بينهم ثمانية مدنيين مع الحديث عن قصف كثيف جدا.

اما اوكرانيا التي تخشى منذ اشهر هجوما للمتمردين في نهاية الصيف او بداية الخريف، فتتوقع “تصعيدا واسع النطاق” في مناسبة عيد استقلالها المصادف الاثنين كما حذر الرئيس بترو بوروشنكو الذي ارسل الى جنوده عشرات الاليات العسكرية وقطع مدفعية.

واعتبر الرئيس الاوكراني ان “التهديد العسكري في الشرق سيبقى لعقود، لن يزول قريبا”.

ودان الاتحاد الاوروبي والامم المتحدة وكييف والولايات المتحدة تصاعد العنف وحملوا مسؤوليته لروسيا المتهمة بدعم المتمردين عسكريا وبنشر قواتها في اوكرانيا. من جهتها، اتهمت موسكو التي تنفي هذه الاتهامات، كييف بالاعداد لهجوم ضد الانفصاليين.

وهدأ الوضع نسبيا لكن ليس هناك ما يدل على تهدئة دائمة. وقال مسؤول اوكراني كبير في اجهزة الامن طالبا عدم كشف هويته ان “روسيا في مأزق مثلنا ومثل الغربيين”.

وفي هذا الاطار تسعى كييف الى وضع خطة تحرك مع حلفائها الاوروبيين استعدادا لتدهور محتمل على الارض، كما قال مصدر دبلوماسي اوكراني لوكالة فرانس برس.

وقال هذا المصدر “من الواضح ان الروس لا يغيرون سلوكهم على الرغم من الضغوط”، مشيرا بذلك الى العقوبات الاقتصادية القاسية التي فرضت على موسكو العام الماضي. واضاف “من هنا يأتي السؤال: ما هي الخطوط الحمر التي يفترض ان يتجاوزوها” لفرض عقوبات جديدة.

لكن برلين تبدو قلقة. فقد صرح الناطق باسم وزارة الخارجية الالمانية سيباستيان فيشر الجمعة بان “الوضع بالغ الخطورة (…) كل قذيفة تفاقم التصعيد وتجعل الوضع اقل استقرارا”.

وقال المسؤول الاوكراني في القطاع الامني ان “هدفهم هو اجبارنا على تقديم تنازلات”.

وفي نهاية آب/اغسطس تحل ذكرى حزينة على كييف. فقبل عام هزمت في ايلوفايسك المدينة الواقعة في الشرق الاوكراني والتي كان الجيش مطوقا فيها وخسر 366 من رجاله، ما اضطر بوروشنكو لتوقيع سلسلة اولى من اتفاقات السلام بعد ايام، اعتبرها كثير من الاوكرانيين مهينة.

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