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ハードブレグジット

ポンドは足元で一時1年1カ月ぶりの安値に沈んだ。ただ英国が欧州連合(EU)と将来の関係で合意しないままEUを離脱する事態が起きれば、さらに10%値下がりするとの見方も出ており、先行きの下落に賭けるポジション構築に魅力を感じる投機筋がじわじわと増えつつある

ポンドは先週だけで約2%下落。きっかけはフォックス国際貿易相が、来年3月のブレグジット(英のEU離脱)まで8カ月足らずとなった中で、合意なしの離脱確率が6割あると警告したことだった

こうしたポンド安はドルの大幅かつ全般的な上昇によって増幅されたきらいがあり、ユーロに対してポンドは10カ月ぶりの安値から幾分値を戻している

しかしアナリストの話では、今後ブレグジットを巡る協議に進展がなければ、来年3月に向けてポンド安が加速し、ヘッジファンドがショートに踏み切る誘惑に駆られかねないという心配がある

ノムラのアナリストチームは顧客に対して、ブレグジットの協議が進展するか、合意なしの離脱(ハードブレグジット)になってしまうかが分かる時期は、来年3月を別にすればなお定まっていないと指摘。「われわれはハードブレグジットを織り込むまさに初期段階に入っている」と述べた

それではポンドはこの先どのように取引されるのだろうか。エコノミストの間では英国はEUと合意に達するとの見方が依然として大勢だが、直近のロイター調査によると、ハードブレグジットの予想確率は7月の20%から25%に切り上がった。一部の賭け業者(ブックメーカー)はさらに高い40%超と見積もっている

ロイター調査では、ハードブレグジットが実現した場合、現在1.2750ドル近辺のポンド/ドルは1.20ドルと約6%下落する見通し。逆に英国とEUが合意すれば、来年1月末までに1.34ドルまでポンド高が進むと予想される

ハードブレグジットシナリオの下では、ポンドの下げがもっときつくなるとの見方も聞かれる。コメルツ銀行の想定では、ポンドがドルとユーロの双方に対して10%下がり、対ユーロ(足元は0.892ポンド近辺)では2016年の英国民投票後の最安値の0.94ポンドを割り込んで等価(1ユーロ=1ポンド)までポンドが売り込まれるという

もちろんブレグジットの行方はまだ不透明で、突然ポンドが高騰する可能性もあるため、多くのヘッジファンドは今のところ様子見姿勢を維持している。それでも一部のファンド勢は金儲けのにおいをかぎつけ、ポンドの先安を見越したポジションを構築し始めた。有力なブレグジット推進派でヘッジファンド投資家のクリスピン・オデイ氏はロイターに、ポンド安に賭ける取引をしていると打ち明け、来年3月前にポンドは1.21ドルに下がるとの見通しを示した

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