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محاصرة أبو بكر البغدادي عند تخوم العراق

وباشرت قوات سوريا الديموقراطية بدعم من التحالف الدولي بقيادة واشنطن في 10 أيلول/سبتمبر المرحلة الأخيرة من الهجوم على تنظيم الدولة الإسلامية، وهي تستهدف بلدة هجين ومحيطها.

وقال القيادي الكردي رزدشت كوباني في موقع الهجوم قرب بلدة السوسة لصحافيي فرانس برس “إنه المعقل الأخير لمرتزقة داعش. كل قياداته وأمرائه الأجانب من خارج سوريا مجتمعون في بلدات السوسة وهجين والشعفة وسنقضي عليهم هنا”.

لكن الباحث في البرنامج حول التطرف في جامعة جورج واشنطن الأميركية حسن حسن يؤكد أن رصد موقع البغدادي قد لا يكون أمرا سهلا.

ويوضح هذا الخبير في الحركات المتطرفة في المنطقة لوكالة فرانس برس “إنه تعلم كيف يختبئ جيدا. هو وتنظيمه استخلصوا العبر من الأخطاء التي كلفت زعيمهم أبو عمر البغدادي وقائدهم العسكري أبو حمزة المهاجر حياتهما عام 2010 (…) وهذا يعني أن عددا ضئيلا من الأشخاص الموثوقين فقط يعرف أين هو”.

وأوضح لواء في جهاز المخابرات العراقية في مطلع أيار/مايو لوكالة فرانس برس طالبا عدم كشف اسمه أن أبو بكر البغدادي موجود في منطقة على الحدود العراقية السورية ويتنقل “بالخفاء وليس بموكب (…) برفقة أربعة إلى خمسة أشخاص بينهم ابنه وصهره”.

ولفت حسن حسن إلى أن هذه المناطقة تبدو محدودة على الخارطة لكنها “على الأرض مناطق شاسعة من الجبال والصحاري والأنهر والقرى في العراق وسوريا، تؤمن مخابئ كثيرة”.

وتابع أنه بالدعم القوي من قدرات التحالف الدولي التقنية “بات العراقيون والسوريون يملكون الموارد لرصده، وقد يتم القبض عليه جراء خطأ يرتكبه هو نفسه أو رجاله”.

وقد يكون هذا الخطأ شبيها بذلك الذي كاد يودي به في 3 تشرين الثاني/نوفمبر 2016 على ما كشفت صحيفة “غارديان” في كانون الثاني/يناير، حين تكلم 45 ثانية على اللاسلكي مع رجاله خلال هجوم القوات العراقية لاستعادة الموصل، فتم رصده على الفور.

وقال مسؤول كردي كبير استمع إلى الاتصال اللاسلكي “قام حراسه بانتزاع الجهاز منه على الفور، أدركوا ما ارتكبه”.

وإن تمكن البغدادي من الإفلات من الطوق هذه المرة، فقد ينضم إلى خلايا سرية للتنظيم في منطقة أخرى من العراق أو من سوريا.

وبحسب هشام الهاشمي، ما زال للتنظيم حوالى الفي عنصر ينشطون في العراق (ثمانية آلاف بالإجمال إذا أضيف إليهم العناصر اللوجستيون والأنصار) وحوالى ثلاثة آلاف مقاتل ناشطون في سوريا (12 ألفا مع العناصر اللوجستيين والأنصار).

وأشار إلى أن العملية على بلدة هجين ومحيطها قد تدفع حوالى 500 من مقاتلي التنظيم في سوريا على الانكفاء إلى العراق “عبر محافظتي الأنبار إلى الغرب والبعاج إلى الجنوب الغربي”.

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