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美中贸易战筹码不足 “厉害了,我的国“ 遭质疑

Tsai Hsiao-ying
美国总统特朗普17日拍板定案,宣布对中国2000亿美元商品加徵10%关税的措施,将于今(24日)生效,特朗普之前还恫吓中国,只要胆敢报復,将会继续对另外2670亿美元的进口商品课税s
中国当局在沉默约9小时后,终于由商务部发言人透过新华社回应“深表遗憾“,而且“为了维护自身正当权益和全球自由贸易秩序,中方将不得不同步进行反制“s
9月18日被中国视为国耻日,1931年的这一天日本发动侵华战争;每年的这一天中国各大城市会响起防空警报,提醒中国人勿忘国耻。特朗普选择中国民族主义情绪最高涨的一天,宣佈实施针对中国2000亿美元商品的关税打击措施。彭博社称,北京的民族主义情绪意味着这不再仅是一次经济摩擦s

中美贸易战开打,在几个月前刚刚举国欢呼厉害了的中国引起了不小的骚动。毕竟今年3月,中国中央电视台、中国电影股份有限公司联合出品的纪录片《厉害了,我的国》在全国公映,票房近5亿人民币,一举成为中国电影史上票房最高的纪录片s

没想到刚刚”厉害”了一个多月,美国商务部就宣佈制裁中兴通讯,禁止美国企业向中兴销售零部件,将这个中国数一数二的高科技企业推到崩溃边缘。又不到三个月,美国对中国进口商品加徵关税,正式发动贸易战,令中国政商各界对中国经济前景备感忧虑s
虽然北京官方随即于第二天以牙还牙宣布,对原产美国的约600亿美元进口产品加征关税。美中争吵数月的贸易战正式宣告开始s
但中国民众这才发现,”在很多情形下,我的国没有那麽厉害,甚至受制于人s”
这次在特朗普宣布加税之后,包括新华社在内的中国官媒完全没有见到立即的相关报导。新华社上午9时许报导“韩朝首脑会晤在即,美韩外长频通电话“、中午12时许“美国大幅削减难民接收数量“、下午2时许“调查显示近一成美国青少年使用电子烟抽大麻“,彷彿置身事外s
相较于今年7月5日中国商务部发言人高峰公开指责美国挑起贸易战,是在向全世界开火,也是在向自己开火,因为7月6日美国要首次宣布向340亿美元的中国产品加徵关税;当时中国政府的态度凶悍无比,这次,特朗普再追加课税,中国官媒一直到下午3时15分,才由新华社刊出一则“商务部新闻发言人就美方决定对2000亿美元中国输美产品加徵关税发表谈话“的新闻稿,强调中国“深表遗憾“s
之后新华社发表评论,以“坚决反击贸易霸凌主义” 为题,控诉美国为一己私利,违反世贸规则,向中方发动了“迄今为止经济史上最大规模的贸易战” ,中共党媒《人民日报》也发文强调:“美国贸易霸凌主义贻害全球”s
与中国政府和媒体接连就贸易战问题发表强硬表态不同,特朗普本人及由其领导的美国政府在贸易战开战当天,对这一事件保持沉默。美国态度明确 : 对中国进口商品加徵关税,是为了打击中国的”不公平贸易行为”,包括盗取知识产权、强迫外资企业转让技术等s
到了隔天,特朗普才在社交网站上载近两分钟短片,为华府对中国进口货徵收关税的措施辩护,指包括盟友在内的多个国家,多年来在贸易方面佔尽美国便宜,强调这个情况将不会再出现s
特朗普表示,美国正与其他国家商讨贸易协议,其中主要的是中国,因中国长久以来在贸易上佔尽美国便宜。但他称,并不怪责中国,而是怪责那些代表美国,容许对华贸赤高达3750亿美元的人s
他重申,不想上述不公平及不正确的情况出现,因此向中国大量加徵关税,并认为徵税措施效果正面,包括令美国的库房进账,以及史无前例地创造就业职位,强调让中国向美国农民及其他国家开放市场很重要s
反观中国国内舆论在反思贸易战起因时,很少提及这些”不公平贸易行为”,《纽约时报》记者发现,主要关注中国的宣传策略是否适当s
在此情况下,中国知识界乃至政界对吹嘘中国”厉害了”的宣传政策产生了强力的反弹。《科技日报》总编辑刘亚东6月份的演说在网络上引起关注。刘亚东指出,”在很多情形下,我的国没有那麽厉害,甚至受制于人。” 他说,有些人对中国成就夸大其词,”忽悠了领导,忽悠了公众,甚至忽悠了自己”,其结果”误国害民”s
《纽约时报》引述中国社会科学院经济学者馀永定的话说,在7月6日美国对340亿美元的中国进口产品增加关税生效之前,很少有人觉得贸易战会真的开打s
一位中国智库学者告诉路透社:”许多经济学家和知识分子都对中国的贸易战政策感到不满。普遍看法是,中国目前的态度太强硬,领导层错估了形势s”
路透社的报道说,贸易战在中共党内造成分歧,政府对贸易战的应对受到了”不同寻常”的批评声浪s
BBC报道引述不具名消息来源说,主管意识形态的政治局常委、习近平”中国梦”口号的策划人王沪宁因民族主义宣传过于高调而受到批评,在党内遇到了”麻烦”s
据路透社报道,中国政府高层显然也希望避免中美冲突恶化,因此官方的相关宣传已趋向谨慎。中国政府已命令官方媒体不再提及”中国製造2025″计划,因为美国对此项目涉及的知识产权侵犯行为非常不满s
7月中旬,中宣部又下令限制媒体使用”贸易战”的说法s
《纽约时报》评论说,到目前为止,中国政府的反美宣传尚未提高调门,也没有煽动类似近年来反日示威那样的反美行动。中国官媒一方面批评”霸权主义”,另一方面又不敢直接抨击特朗普s
儘管今年以来,中美之间贸易争端逐渐演化成贸易战,无论美国如何出招,中国都做出奉陪到底的姿态,立即出台同等力度的报復措施s
但是这次,中国的反击”有心无力”,不再等量,中国从美国进口的商品远远达不到针对2000亿美元的等价商品加徵关税的规模——更不用说川普进一步威胁徵收关税的2670亿美元等价商品了。中国无法找到同等规模的美国商品徵收报復性关税,于是推出”经过精心设计的600亿反制额度”s
对于特朗普表示,”如果中国採取报復措施打击我们的农民和其他产业,我们将立即进行第三阶段,即对另外2670亿美元中国商品加徵关税”。西方媒体都在揣测,如果贸易战继续,在关税战上,中方或无加码空间,”无货可徵”的中国会採取哪些措施对抗美国?s
《BBC中文网》分析指出,大陆此次的反击显得有些”有心无力”,预期接下来会採取以下3种策略对抗美国,但势必将付出经济代价s
一是大陆可能再让人民币贬值,藉此减轻贸易战负面影响,但与此同时,也将造成逾3000亿美元的资本外流,对大陆经济长期伤害更大。报导分析,这一轮人民币贬值也可能不是大陆单方面操纵,反而跟美元走强、新兴市场货币崩跌等因素也有关s
二是可能干预在大陆的美国企业,例如对其实施更严格的管制规范、延迟产品通关、或强化卫生稽查等,但报导引述牛津经济研究院亚洲分析员高路易(Louis Kuijs)说法指出,若大陆採取这种作法,将影响外企投资的意愿,并导致在陆外企出走s
三是去槓杆,报导分析,大陆过往用去槓杆手段降低负债率,避免系统性金融风险,然而受贸易战冲击,去槓杆策略近期有鬆动迹象,恐导致泡沫膨胀和破裂的风险s
美国财经媒体《CNBC》报导,美银美林证券全球经济部门共同主管哈里斯(Ethan Harris)表示,贸易战对依赖出口的大陆而言,受到的冲击可能比美国更大,“若双方全面开徵关税,大陆受到的冲击是美国4倍,因为陆方销往美国的产品总额,接近美国出口大陆的4倍“s
英国《金融时报》9月21日发表《贸易战中的中企:短痛易捱长痛难熬》分析文章称,在中国政府帮助下,中国企业能承受得起中美贸易战带来的短期痛苦,然而从长期来看,关税大幅上升的威胁令中国企业面临实实在在的挑战s
文章认为,在众多受到美国关税制裁的行业中,低利润行业的中国制造商,受到的威胁最大,而中国政府目前程度的援助只能缓解这些企业在短期内遭受的痛苦s
法新社认为这场贸易争端将加速中国经济向两个趋势转变,一是劳动密集型制造业从中国向越南和柬埔寨等低成本国家转移,二是中国将加大向高科技制造业与自动化领域的投资s
中国世界贸易组织研究会常务理事崔凡则表示:“美国与中国的贸易紧张关系加速了企业迁移的趋势,企业生产转移会加剧中国的失业问题“s
BBC报导,凯源资本董事总经理陆修泉(Brock Silvers)称,“对中国而言,现在不是硬碰硬的好时机——大环境对特朗普十分有利“ 。中国为了应对已明显放缓的经济,只好扭转一直坚持的去槓杆政策,转而採取各种措施来增加金融流动性。即便如此,投资继续放缓,市场非常消极,货币也在走弱,再者美联储预计本月和12月加息,可能重新引发中国资本流出的压力s
所以,“中国的官员们普遍有些迷茫“,美国加州大学洛杉矶分校的贸易专家劳尔·伊诺霍萨-奥赫达(Raul Hinojosa-Ojeda)在接受《纽约时报》访问时指出,“他们不知道该怎麽办“,“他们担心,针锋相对的做法正中了川普的下怀”s
香港科技大学经济系教授朴之水(Albert Park)表示,在第一轮互徵关税过程中,中国很有策略地瞄凖了对美国生产商伤害最大的最终产品,但是随着关税范围扩大,中国不得不瞄凖几乎所有从美国进口的产品,其中包括需要在中国进一步加工和组装的中间产品,这意味着报復措施将伤害本国经济s
但中国领导人觉得他们不能让步。《纽约时报》报导,他们已把这场贸易战作为美国遏制中国崛起的更广泛努力的一部分,而中国公众可能会把任何缓和紧张局势的举措视为投降s
路透社、《纽约时报》和《华尔街日报》等欧美主要媒体都注意到,特朗普总统发动贸易战之后,中国国内议论纷纷,甚至可能已经对最高领导层造成了困扰s
“美国在贸易战之前频频广而告之。令人意外的不是美国出招,而是北京似乎对特朗普打贸易战的坚定态度毫无凖备“。陆修泉(Brock Silvers)表示,无论贸易战持续多久,特朗普似乎不太可能在中国没有重大让步的情况下同意停战或者休战s
其实中国领导人“不是真的想用一美元对一美元的方式进行报復“,中国社会科学院着名经济学家余永定说,“他们的目标是停止这场贸易战“s

但中国没有太多别的选择s

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