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آخر استطلاع للرأي ومفاجآت يوم الأحد

باريس – بسّام الطيارة

بدء من مساء اليوم لم يعد مسموحاً للإعلام (داخل فرنسا) نشر استطلاعات رأي (وبالتالي هذا آخر استطلاع تنشره «أخبار بووم – برس نت»).‬
‫يظهر أخر استطلاع منشور لمؤسسة «إيبسو لوجيكا» (Ipsos-Logica Business Consulting) الذي أجري بين ١٨ و١٩ الشهر الجاري أي قبل ثلاثة أيام من الدورة الأولى بناء على طلب صحيفة «لوموند» (Le Monde) وراديو فرنسا (Radio France) والتلفزيونات الفرنسي التابعة للدولة(France Télévisions ) بأن فرانسوا هولاند ما زال في مقدمة المرشحين، وأكدت تراجع نيكولا ساركوزي بشكل واضح، إذ أن الفارق بات ٣،٥ نقاط أي يتجاوز بكثير هامش الخطأ المعلن (ما بين الـ ٢ والـ ٣ في المئة) أي أن هولاند يحصل على ٢٩ في المئة بينما يكتفي ساركوزي بـ ٢٥،٥ في المئة، أضف إلى أن هامش الخطأ يمكن أن يكون سلبي أو إيجابي  وفي حال كان سلبياً يصبح الفارق نصف نقطة لصالح هولاند وفي حال كان إيجابياً يصبح الفارق ٦،٥ نقطة أيضاً  لصالح هولاند. ‬
‫وفي المركز الثالث لم يعد هناك مجالاً للشك فقد باتت مارين لوبن (Marine Le Pen) قبل جان لوك ميلانشون (Jean-Luc Mélenchon) بعد أن ربحت نقطتين لتحصد ١٦ في المئة من «نوايا التصويت» بينما يكتفي ميلانشون مرشح الجبهة اليسارية  بـ ١٤ في المئة. ويفسر هذا التراجع تقدم هولاند بقوة ويفسر تراجع ساركوزي تقدم لوبن أو العكس بالعكس.‬
‫ويبدو أن الخاسر الأكبر رغم تودد الجميع له هو فرانسوا بايرو (François Bayrou).‬
‫الجديد أيضاً في استطلاعات الرأي هذه أن إمكانية «المفاجآت» في المركز الثالث ما زالت مفتوحة، إذ أن ١٧ في المئة من المتستطلعة آراءهم ما زالوا مترددين بين مرشح وآخر، كما أن ١١ في المئة يعلنون صراحة أن رأيهم يمكن أن يتغير في الساعات المقبلة. ولكن في المقابل فإن الناخب اليميني يبدو حازماً في خياراته إذ أن من ٨٤ رلى ٨٥ في المئة من مؤيدي ساركوزي أو لوبن متأكدين من خيارهم، وهذا ما يعتبر خبراً سيئاً لساركوزي الذي يأمل بجذب أصوات مارين لوبن من الدورة الأولى. أما في الجبهة اليسارية فإن التردد هو سيد الموقف ويمثل ٤٠ في المئة من مؤيدي بايرو و٢٩ في المئة من مؤيدي ميلانشون بينما هم فقط بحدود الـ ٢١ في المئة بين مؤيدي هولاند وهي أخبار سارة للمرشح الاشتراكي.‬
‫رغم هذه الأرقام المطمئنة للبعض والمقلقة للبعض الآخر فإنها لا تدل البتة على ما يمكن أن يخرج يوم الأحد من صناديق الاقتراع. إذ يمكن لمتخوفين من توجه ساركوزي اليميني لكسب أصوات لوبن أن يجعل مؤيديه الوسطيين يبتعدون عنه ويصوتون «للحل الوحيد أمامهم» أي فرانسوا بايرو ما يمكن أن يقود إلى تراجع ساركوزي وتقدم مارين لوبن لتكون مفاجأة الدور الأول كما حصل مع والدها عام ٢٠٠٢، كما يمكن لبعض مؤيديد اليسار أن يصوتوا فيالدورة الأولى لصالح ميلانشون لدعم أفكاره لدى المرشح الاشتراكي فيتراجع هولاند إلى المرتبة الثانيةفي الدورة الأولى ويستفيد ساركوزي من «ديناميكية» الدورة الأولى وبالتالي «يقنع اليمين المتطرف» أنه سوف ينفذ وعوده هذه الولاية ما يمكن أن يشكل مفاجأة الدورة الثانية في ٦ أيار/مايو.‬
‫من دون هذه المفاجأت فإن اإقام الاستطلاعات النهائية تعطي هولاند في الدورة اثلانية ٥٦،٥ في المئة وساركوزي ٤٣،٥ في المئة‬

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