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أرباح السعودية من النفط والغاز 285 مليار دولار

رجح تقرير مالي أن يحقق الناتج المحلي الإجمالي بالمملكة نموا نسبته 5% في المتوسط، وذلك في الفترة من 2012 إلى 2016، وذلك على خلفية نمو المنتجات غير النفطية بالمملكة بنسبة 5%. وتوقع أن يستقر التضخم عند 5.5% سنويا خلال السنوات الخمس المقبلة، حيث يرى أن الضغوط التضخمية بالمملكة تحت السيطرة.

وأشار إلى أن الإنفاق الحكومي لا يزال هو المحرك الرئيس للنمو الاقتصادي، مشيرا إلى أنه من المتوقع أن تحقق المملكة أرباحا من النفط والغاز بحوالي 285 مليار دولار، بالإضافة إلى الإيرادات غير النفطية، متوقعا أن يصل إجمالي الإيرادات الحكومية إلى 300 مليار دولار سنويا خلال الفترة من 2012 إلى 2016.

وقالت مجموعة سامبا المالية في تحليلها للاقتصاد السعودي أن أسعار النفط العالية سوف تضاف إلى عائدات الطاقة النظيفة لتكون رصيداً ضخماً للسعودية من العملات الأجنبية يصل إلى 356 مليار دولار خلال العامين القادمين ليصبح بهذا أهم ارتفاع على مدار التاريخ ليصل إلى تريليون دولار.

ويشكل الإنتاج النفطي السعودي أكثر من ثلثي دخل البلاد، كما أن الزيادة في أسعار الوقود النظيف العام الماضي أدت لمزيد من العائدات من الإنتاج اليومي العام التي تبشر برفع مستوى نمو الإنتاج إلى 6,8%. ويبلغ متوسط أسعار برميل النفط 105 دولارات العام الماضي وتتوقع العديد من الوكالات الدولية أن ينهي العام الحالي على أعلى معدل، وبنفس الوقت ذكرت السعودية الفترة الماضية أنها زادت من ضخ النفط ليصل الى 10 ملايين برميل باليوم الواحد.

وتشكل أعلى أسعار للنفط وإنتاجه دعماً للاحتياطات النقدية للسعودية التي وصلت الى نحو 352 مليار ريال عام 2011، وإلى أعلى معدلاتها على الإطلاق لتبلغ 2,057 مليار ريال، قبل أن تبلغ رقماً قياسياً آخر وصل إلى 2,154 مليار ريال بنهاية مارس من هذا العام. وكان هذا أكبر معدل زيادة سنوي باحتياطي العملات الأجنبية منذ عام 2008 حين بلغ حداً صلدا وصل الى 513 مليار ريال لسبب رئيسي هو الارتفاع بقيمة 50%، في أسعار الوقود النظيف التي أتاحت للاقتصاد ليسجل أعلى عائداته التي وصلت الى 580 مليار ريال.

كما أن الزيادة العام الماضي كانت أكبر من ضعف الاحتياطات التي نمت بقدار 135 مليار ريال خلال العام الحالي وأنهت العام على 1,705 مليار ريال بالمقارنة مع 1,57 مليار ريال بنهاية عام 2009.

والطفرة في أسعار النفط وصلت لأرقام غير مسبوقة مع زيادة في الإنتاج اليومي السعودي من الوقود النظيف بنحو مليون برميل أدى لتوسيع أرباح الإنتاج الزائد عن حاجة المملكة بنحو 307 مليارات ريال العام الماضي من 87 مليار ريال بنفس العام، والفائض الزائد الحالي يصل الى 156 مليار ريال بعدما كان 69 مليار ريال. وبعد هذه الأسعار العالية للنفط أعلنت الحكومة السعودية عن ميزانية قياسية تصل إلى 690 مليار ريال للعام الحالي، ويتوقع محللون أن الإنفاق العام الفعلي سينتهى بشكل أعلى بكثير هذا العام.

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