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كينيا في الصومال: مغامرة “المنطقة العازلة”

خاص “أخبار بووم”
دخلت الجيوش الكينية إلى جنوب الصومال في مغامرة مجهولة المصير تقود كينيا نحو المستنقع الصومالي، وهي التي استطاعت أن تتجنب العنف الذي يعبث بجارتها منذ عقدين. من المؤكد أن نيروبي لم تكن تستطيع أن تقف مكتوفة الأيدي أمام عمليات الخطف الأخيرة التي تمت على أراضيها. ليس فقط حفاظاً على سيادة البلاد، بل لأن هذه العمليات تضرب في صميم الاقتصاد الكيني باستهدافها السياحة التي تمثل قسماً كبيراً من واردات الدولة الأفريقية وتجذب سنوياً مئات الآلاف من الأوروبيين.
علامات الاستفهام تدور حول قدرة الجيش الكيني الكلاسيكي على التعامل مع الوضع الثوري في الصومال، الذي «كسر أسنان عدداً من الجيوش» منذ سقوط الرئيس سياد بري، حسب قول أحد الخبراء العسكريين الذي عمل في القرن الأفريقي. ويشير الخبير إلى «هزيمة الكوماندوس الأميركي» في عملية «إعادة الأمل» (Restore Hope) التي قادتها إدارة كلينتون عام ١٩٩٣ وانتهت بكارثة. كما يذكر بدخول الجيش الأثيوبي ورده لـ«الشباب» من العاصمة مقديشو عام ٢٠٠٦ قبل أن يدير ظهره لحالة الفوضى بعد سنتين نتيجة عجزه عن تثبيت الأمن في البلاد وارتفاع عدد قتلاه في عمليات حرب عصابات دفع ثمنها غالياً. كما أن «القوة الأفريقية» المؤلفة من ٩٠٠٠ عسكري ظلت عاجزة عن تأمين العاصمة ودفعت ثمناً غالياً دفاعاً عن الحكومة المعترف بها دولياً إلى أن قرر «الشباب» الانسحاب من العاصمة لأسباب ما زالت حتى الآن مجهولة.
وأسر الخبير لموقع «أخبار بووم» أن هدف الجيش الكيني هو إقامة منطقة عازلة على طول الحدود بين منطقة «الواق» ومنطقة «إزس قمبوني» بشكل يمنع الشباب من الوصول إلى الأراضي الكينية. ولكنه يشير إلى أن نجاعة هذا الحل مرتبطة بقدرة الغربيين، الذين يديرون عملية «أطلاند» البحرية، على حماية الشواطئ الكينية وهو أمر غير مضمون البتة. علماً أن خاطفي الرهائن جاؤوا على ما يبدو من البحر، كما أن الرهينة الفرنسية ماري دوديو، التي قضت في الأسر خطفت من جزيرة «ماندا» بواسطة كوماندوس بحري مؤلف من عشرة أشخاص. ولا يستبعد الخبير أن يكون للشباب الصومالي العديد من المؤيدين في الجانب الكيني من الحدود وأن تواطؤ هؤلاء «يسهل أعمال الشباب» الذين يعتبرون كينيا «حديقة خلفية» لحربهم في الصومال. وفي الواقع فإن هذا الشق من «تداخل وارتباط المنظمات الإسلامية لسلفية» مع مجموعات كينية يقف وراء قرار نيروبي القفز في مجهول الحرب الصومالية، وهو ما يمكن أن يفتح أبواب زعزعة استقرار كينيا وتوازن مجتمعها الذي يحوي ٤٠ في المئة من المسلمين الذي ظلوا حتى الآن بعيدين عن ذراع “الشباب”.

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