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السعودية – إيران: المعركة المقبلة في … لبنان

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بسّام الطيارة

ليس مهماً أن تكون الأخبار مستقاة من مصادر موثوقة أو غير موثوقة، وليس المهم من يأت بالأخبار… كُلِّفَ أم لم يكلف.. الأمر واضح وضوح المعادلة الرياضية. إن الاطلاع على قسم من مخطط أي معادلة رياضية يكفي لتبيان رسمها كاملاً. ومنذ عقود أي منذ قيام الثورة الايرانية كان واضحاً أن «قواعد اشتباك» قد كتبت لصراع مذهبي بين السنة والشيعة: هذه هي المعادلة. أما الرسوم البيانية التي تخطها هذه المعادلة فقد بدأت في الحرب العراقية الإيرانية وتصل اليوم إلى شاطئي الخليج بعد أن مرت بلبنان والبحرين وسوريا واليمن وعودة إلى العراق… فهل تعود إلى لبنان بشكل أعنف؟

كل نفاصيل المعادلة السياسية-الرياضية للصراع بين إيران والسعودية تدل على أن خطها البياني سينعطف ليعود إلى … لبنان.

لماذا؟

١) لأن لبنان هو مثله مثل الدول التي أصابتها تعرجات بيان معادلة صراع يتكئ على وجود مواطنين شيعة داخل إطار هذه الأقطار، ومن هنا يمكن القول إنه «آخر العنقود» ٢) لأن لبنان متداخل في الصراعات الثلاثة القائمة حالياً ضمن إطار هذه المعادلة عبر حزب الله وخصومه السياسيين كل منهما منددٌ بفريق أو متدخلٌ لمساعدة الفريق المواجه.  ٢) لأن لبنان اليوم هو ضعيف على المستوى السياسي بسبب انقسامات مكوناته السياسية. ٣) لأن لبنان منقسم عامودياً حسب تعاريج هذه المعادلة. ٤) لأن في لبنان الانقسام ليس مذهبياً ولكنه تأجيج للصراع المباشر بين إيران والسعودية وهو بالتالي يمكن أن يقود نحو اصطفاف مذهبي كريه. ٥) لأن في لبنان التوازن بين القوى السياسية قاد إلى جمود في تجديد المؤسسات، وقد يعتقد البعض أن صراعاً مباشراً قد يقود إلى قلب معايير التوازن. ٦) لأن الكيل قد طفح عند الفريقين من انتظار «التغيرات الإقليمية» لحل المشاكل اللبنانية. ٧) لأن خطاب القطبين سعد الحريري وحسن نصر الله يذهبا في اتجاهين متناقضين لا يمكن أن يلتقيا.

هذه بعض من نقاط هذه المعادلة التي يقود خطها البياني إلى «نقطة التقاء كارثية»*. لبنان على مشارف هذه النقطة التي يمكن أن تقود إلى حرب أهلية، في حال لم يستدرك نصرالله والحريري، ومن يطبل ويزمر في سياقهما، ويراجع الجميع خطابه الذي يُلبسه رداءً قومياً أو عروبياً أو إسلامياً بينما هو في الواقع خطاب مذهبي محض.

  • (وهو تعبير في علم الرياضيات وخصوصاً علم ميكانيك السوائل للإشارة إلى تغير نوعي في سلوك نظام ديناميكي ما- وهو يطبق اليوم على أي نظام سياسي أو اجتماعي-، نتيجة تغيير متداخل لعوامله المتعددة -نقاط المعادلة- ما يقود إلى نقطة احتكاك تسمى نقطة كارثية)

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